Sunday, January 20, 2008

No Mo

All of the candidates have been looking for the "Big Mo" - the momentum that will put them ahead of all the others for Super Tuesday and set them on the path to the White House. It doesn't look like its going to happen.

Yesterday Clinton and McCain were hailed as victors, but Obama and Romney won. Strange, but true. In Romney's case it was because he concentrated his efforts in Nevada and not South Carolina. Nevada has more delegates, but the winner in South Carolina has been the winner of the nomination for the past seven elections. That's a good record, to be sure, but New Hampshire had a similar record until 1992 and two of those seven were incumbents. Romney, meanwhile, has won in Michigan, Wyoming, and Nevada and has been picking up large numbers of candidates throughout the campaign.

In Nevada, Clinton won the popular vote but not a majority of candidates. The state weighs delegates to give more to rural areas, so that they aren't overwhelmed by Las Vegas and Reno. Clinton won in the cities, Obama in the rural areas. He either has more or an equal amount of delegates, depending on your source. Clinton is the leader, having the commitment of many superdelegates going in, but Obama is consistently taking votes away from her. The Democrats of South Carolina vote this coming Saturday, and Obama is expected to win. So far he has won more delegates, albeit marginally, than Clinton, and a strong win there could be what it takes to put him firmly in the lead. Could be. But its all too close to Super Tuesday now for anyone to reach any conclusions.


Westside Goth said...

you know, i'm registered to vote and all... but i don't follow politics and have no clue who'd i vote for. maybe i shouldn't vote.

David Bird said...

That never stopped anyone before!

Seriously, though, American presidential elections take a long, long time. Lots of opportunity left to make a decision.